A simulation-based product diffusion forecasting method using geometric Brownian motion and spline interpolation

A simulation-based product diffusion forecasting method using geometric Brownian motion and spline interpolation

This study addresses the problem of stochasticity in forecasting diffusion of a new product with scarce historical data. Demand uncertainties are calibrated using a geometric Brownian motion (GBM) process. The spline interpolation (SI) method and curve fitting process have been utilized to obtain parameters of the constructed GBM-based differential equation over the product’s life cycle (PLC). ...

Simulating Brownian motion ( BM ) and geometric Brownian

2) and 3) together can be summarized by: If t0 = 0 < t1 < t2 < · · · < tk, then the increment rvs B(ti) − B(ti−1), i ∈ {1, . . . k}, are independent with B(ti) − B(ti−1) ∼ N(0, ti − ti−1) (normal with mean 0 and variance ti − ti−1). In particular, B(ti) − B(ti−1) is independent of B(ti−1) = B(ti−1)−B(0). If we only wish to simulate B(t) at one fixed value t, then we need only generate a unit no...

1 Geometric Brownian motion

where X(t) = σB(t) + μt is BM with drift and S(0) = S0 > 0 is the intial value. We view S(t) as the price per share at time t of a risky asset such as stock. Taking logarithms yields back the BM; X(t) = ln(S(t)/S0) = ln(S(t))− ln(S0). ln(S(t)) = ln(S0) +X(t) is normal with mean μt + ln(S0), and variance σ2t; thus, for each t, S(t) has a lognormal distribution. As we will see in Section 1.4: let...

Geometric Interpolation by Quartic Rational Spline Motions

We discuss piecewise rational motions with first order geometric continuity. In addition we describe an interpolation scheme generating rational spline motions of degree four matching given positions which are partially complemented by associated tangent information. As the main advantage of using geometric interpolation, it makes it possible to deal successfully with the unequal distribution o...

Sigman 1 Geometric Brownian motion